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Daily on Energy, presented by Advanced Energy United: Trump escalates trade war with Canada

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy Tuesday, readers! The Trump administration’s tariffs are back on as the president announced he would be doubling the duties on Canadian steel and aluminum, in retaliation to Ontario’s electricity export tariff for some Americans.  

As the investigation into the oil tanker collision in the North Sea remains ongoing, today’s edition of Daily on Energy can provide an update as British police have arrested a man on suspicion of manslaughter connected to the incident. 

Plus, keep reading to find out which energy source dominated over all the rest for newly installed capacity last year. 

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

TRUMP DOUBLES CANADIAN TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM: President Donald Trump announced today he is doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% in response to the provincial government of Ontario placing a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. 

Trump said on social media that the increase in tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum will go into effect tomorrow. He also said Canada should slash what he called “Anti-American Farmer Tariffs” of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products. Trump added that he would declare a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. 

“Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why?” Trump wrote. “And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!” 

He said if Canada does not drop the tax he will “substantially increase” tariffs starting April 2 on Canadian cars, which would “permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada.” 

How will the tariffs affect the U.S. energy sector? Tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel are set to increase costs in the U.S. beyond prices that were seen in 2018 when Trump imposed similar tariffs, Matt Loffman, Senior Vice President, Metals, Materials and Equipment at Rystad Energy, said last month

Loffman noted that offshore wind, onshore oil and gas are the most at-risk sectors as steel is used to build plates for wind turbines and construct onshore oil and gas infrastructure. He added that U.S. offshore oil and gas projects along with wind projects will likely see a rise in costs. 

MAN ARRESTED ON SUSPICION OF MANSLAUGHTER IN OIL TANKER COLLISION: British police arrested a man today on the suspicion of manslaughter related to the oil tanker collision yesterday that left two vessels ablaze and jet fuel leaking into the North Sea. 

The details: Authorities in Humberside have revealed they detained a 59-year-old man, who has yet to be publicly named, “on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter in connection with the collision,” according to the Associated Press. The man has not yet been charged.  

The Stena Immaculate tanker, a U.S.-flagged oil tanker managed by Florida-based Crowley Maritime, was struck yesterday by the Portuguese-flagged Solong off the coast of Hull where it was anchored, causing a fire on both vessels. Tall flames and billowing black smoke could be seen stretching far above the ships in images of the collision shared to social media. By Tuesday morning much of the fires appeared to have been controlled. 

The U.S. and Portuguese governments will be leading the investigation, and officials have said there was no indication of foul play at this time. Thirty-six of the 37 crew members from the two ships were recovered safely. By Monday night, U.K. transport minister Mike Kane reportedly said authorities believed the missing individual had died. 

A reminder: The U.S. tanker had been carrying a cargo tank containing Jet-A1 fuel, which ruptured as a result of the collision. Crowley Maritime confirmed that the jet fuel soon began leaking into the sea below after the collision. Kane has said there is no major sign of pollution from the two ships, but it is still early in the investigation and the Solong is expected to sink into the sea. Environmentalists have sounded the alarm that the collision could spark a crisis, as jet fuel and other chemicals can be a risk to marine life. 

SOLAR SOARS ABOVE OTHER ENERGY SOURCES WITH 2024 GAINS: U.S. installations of solar capacity last year eclipsed those of any energy technology in a single year over the last two decades, industry leaders now say. 

The details: This morning, the Solar Energy Industries Association released its 2024 Year in Review, revealing that the U.S. installed a record-breaking 50 gigawatts of new solar capacity last year, dwarfing other energy sources. The report estimated that solar and storage accounted for around 84% of all new electric generating capacity added to the national grid in 2024. 

At this rate, solar capacity is expected to reach around 739 gigawatts by 2035. However, the industry faces uncertainty in the coming years from policy changes, supply chain issues brought on by Trump’s tariffs, and hesitancy from the administration to back renewables. 

Some background: Yesterday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright promised to reverse the nation’s focus on battling climate change, insisting that renewable energy sources are unable to meet growing demand. “Beyond the obvious scale and cost problems, there is simply no physical way wind, solar and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas,” Wright said at CERAWeek in Houston, Texas. 

Amid administration skepticism, industry experts and utility executives remain confident that renewables will play a large role in supporting demand brought on by artificial intelligence developments, data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. While also at CERAWeek yesterday, NextEra CEO John Ketchum told BloombergNEF that the U.S. will need to lean on renewables to provide the majority of energy supply in the country. He warned that natural gas will only be able to support around 16% of the 460 gigawatts of new generation needed by 2030. “It’s all of the above: We need renewables, we need gas, we need nuclear,” Ketchum said.

OIL PRICES FORECAST TO DROP LATER IN THE YEAR: The Energy Information Administration is now predicting that the cost of oil will only drop slightly at the end of this year, amid concerns that prices could drop to $50 a barrel. 

The details: The EIA revised its 2025 average forecast for natural gas and oil prices today, predicting that the average price of International benchmark Brent Crude will actually rise over the coming months until the third quarter, when it will peak at around $75 a barrel. The agency then said it will likely slightly drop to an average of around $68 per barrel entering 2026. This is dramatically higher than previous industry predictions that suggested the cost of oil could drop to $50 a barrel over increased U.S. production – as promised by the administration – and a planned output increase from OPEC+. 

The EIA still pointed to these two factors as the main reason behind the drop in prices. The group said, however, there is some uncertainty in its pricing forecast, given Iranian sanctions and the administration’s decision to revoke oil export licenses in Venezuela. 

CO2 EMISSIONS OBSERVATORY ON THE DOGE CHOPPING BLOCK: Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has reportedly set its sights on canceling the lease of the office that supports a world-leading climate research observatory in Hawaii, in the administration’s efforts to shrink government costs. 

The details: Sources confirmed to Reuters that DOGE is looking to end the lease for a Hilo office that supports the Mauna Loa Observatory, which has been in operation since 1956. The observatory is located around 30 miles west of the eastern town and sits on the Mauna Loa volcano. It holds the world record for longest measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide monitoring, according to Reuters

It remains unclear if DOGE has fully decided to cancel the lease – as the administration has walked back several similar plans for various research buildings across the country. However, it is still listed on the DOGE website, which estimates that the government would save around $150,692 a year if the lease was canceled, Reuters reported. One former NOAA official told the outlet that the lease is set to expire on Aug. 31. 

The impact: The Hilo office is primarily used by staffers who travel from the town to the peaks of the volcano to collect air samples later tested for CO2 concentrations. These measurements are then used to track changes in the climate as well as support climate model simulations, atmospheric scientist Marc Allessi told Reuters. One atmospheric scientist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told the outlet that a closure of the office would essentially shut down these monitoring efforts. 

“It requires continuous shipping of sampling equipment black and forth all over the world. Suddenly, we cannot use our government-issued credit cards anymore … It looks like our monitoring program will soon be dead,” the source said.

MOST COUNTRIES FAILED TO MEET AIR QUALITY STANDARDS LAST YEAR: Only seven countries met World Health Organization’s air quality standards in 2024, Reuters reports

The seven countries that did meet WHO standards were Australia, New Zealand, the Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada, Estonia, and Iceland, according to data from the Swiss air quality monitoring firm IQAir. Chad and Bangladesh were the most polluted countries last year. The smog levels in the two countries were 15 times higher than the standards. 

Reuters said there is missing data for Asia and Africa, as many developing countries relied on the U.S. government’s air quality sensors. Last week, however, the State Department suspended a global air quality program that provided data to 80 embassies and consulates worldwide. 

EPA FACES MORE LAWSUITS FOR FUNDING FREEZES: The Coalition for Green Capital sued Citibank for refusing to disburse funding that was awarded by the Environmental Protection Agency during the Biden administration. 

The coalition said the bank is holding funds that Congress appropriated under the Inflation Reduction Act and is seeking a court order asking Citibank to release the funds. The coalition is referring to the $14 billion National Clean Investment Fund program, which is part of the Inflation Reduction Act’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. The program funds clean energy projects. 

The lawsuit marks the second legal challenge brought against Citibank for not releasing the money from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. Climate United recently filed a lawsuit against the EPA and Citibank for holding funds from the program. 

The EPA has frozen the funds because EPA administrator Lee Zeldin has claimed the program improperly distributed them, resulting in possible fraud. The FBI reportedly has started questioning EPA employees about the program. 

ICYMI – US MAY USE EMERGENCY AUTHORITY TO FIRE UP RETIRED COAL PLANTS: Coal-powered plants may see a revival under the Trump administration, as Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. is weighing using emergency authority to bring retired facilities back online. 

The details: On the first day of the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Texas yesterday, Burgum told Bloomberg Television that the administration is looking to harness as much energy as possible to meet growing demand. 

“Under the national energy emergency, which President Trump has declared, we’ve got to keep every coal plant open,” Burgum said. “And if there had been units at a coal plant that have been shut down, we need to bring those back.”

Some background: The use of coal in the U.S. has dramatically decreased over the last two decades as the country and western allies have accelerated their transition to cleaner sources of energy. In 2023, the Energy Information Administration estimated that coal made up around 16% of the nation’s total net electricity generation – with nuclear and renewables surpassing it at roughly 21% and 18% respectively.

Data compiled by EIA shows that there were 518 coal plants operational in 2013. By 2023, that number had dropped to 227. It is important to note that not all of the 291 fewer facilities may have completely shuttered due to the growing trend of transitioning coal-fired plants to natural gas. Since 2000, roughly 700 individual coal-fired units have tried, according to the Global Energy Monitor. 

RUNDOWN

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